Effectiveness of extended shutdown measures during the ´Bundesnotbremse´ introduced in the third SARS-CoV-2 wave in Germany.

ABSTRACT

A third SARS-CoV-2 infection wave has affected Germany from March 2021 until April 24th, until the ´Bundesnotbremse´ introduced nationwide shutdown measures. The ´Bundesnotbremse´ is the technical term which was used by the German government to describe nationwide shutdown measures to control the rising infection numbers. These measures included mainly contact restrictions on several level. This study investigates which effects locally dispersed pre- and post-´Bundesnotbremse´ measures had on the infection dynamics. We analyzed the variability and strength of the rates of the changes of weekly case numbers considering different regions, age groups, and contact restrictions. Regionally diverse measures slowed the rate of weekly increase by about 50% and about 75% in regions with stronger contact restrictions. The 'Bundesnotbremse' induced a coherent reduction of infection numbers across all German federal states and age groups throughout May 2021. The coherence of the infection dynamics after the 'Bundesnotbremse' indicates that these stronger measures induced the decrease of infection numbers. The regionally diverse non-pharmaceutical interventions before could only decelerate further spreading, but not prevent it alone.