Spatial clustering behaviour of Covid-19 conditioned by the development level: Case study for the administrative units in Romania.

ABSTRACT

Spatial analyses related to Covid-19 have been so far conducted at county, regional or national level, without a thorough assessment at the continuous local level of administrative-territorial units like cities, towns, or communes. To address this gap, we employ daily data on the infection rate provided for Romanian administrative units from March to May 2021. Using the global and local Moran I spatial autocorrelation coefficients, we identify significant clustering processes in the Covid-19 infection rate. Additional analysis based on spatially smoothed rate maps and spatial regressions prove that this clustering pattern is influenced by the development level of localities, proxied by unemployment rate and Local Human Development Index. Results show the features of the 3rd wave in Romania, characterized by a quadratic trend.