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Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system.
Moore, Frances C; Lacasse, Katherine; Mach, Katharine J; Shin, Yoon Ah; Gross, Louis J; Beckage, Brian.
Afiliação
  • Moore FC; Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA. fmoore@ucdavis.edu.
  • Lacasse K; Department of Psychology, Rhode Island College, Providence, RI, USA.
  • Mach KJ; Department of Environmental Science and Policy, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
  • Shin YA; Leonard and Jayne Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
  • Gross LJ; Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.
  • Beckage B; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA.
Nature ; 603(7899): 103-111, 2022 03.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35173331
The ambition and effectiveness of climate policies will be essential in determining greenhouse gas emissions and, as a consequence, the scale of climate change impacts1,2. However, the socio-politico-technical processes that will determine climate policy and emissions trajectories are treated as exogenous in almost all climate change modelling3,4. Here we identify relevant feedback processes documented across a range of disciplines and connect them in a stylized model of the climate-social system. An analysis of model behaviour reveals the potential for nonlinearities and tipping points that are particularly associated with connections across the individual, community, national and global scales represented. These connections can be decisive for determining policy and emissions outcomes. After partly constraining the model parameter space using observations, we simulate 100,000 possible future policy and emissions trajectories. These fall into 5 clusters with warming in 2100 ranging between 1.8 °C and 3.6 °C above the 1880-1910 average. Public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of mitigation technologies, and the responsiveness of political institutions emerge as important in explaining variation in emissions pathways and therefore the constraints on warming over the twenty-first century.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Gases de Efeito Estufa Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Gases de Efeito Estufa Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Article