Prediction of the potential distribution pattern of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) under climate change based on ensemble modelling.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Rodent infestation is a global biological problem. Rodents are widely distributed worldwide, cause harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry production and spread a variety of natural focal diseases. In this study, 10 ecological niche models were combined into an ensemble model to assess the distribution of suitable habitats for Rhombomys opimus and to predict the impact of future climate change on the distribution of R. opimus under low, medium and high socioeconomic pathway scenarios of CMIP6. RESULTS: In general, with the exception of extreme climates (2090-SSP585), the current and potential future ranges of R. opimus habitat are maintained at approximately 220 × 104 km2 . In combination with human footprint data, the potential distribution area of R. opimus was found to coincide with areas with a moderate human footprint. In addition, this distribution area will gradually shift to higher-latitude regions, and the suitable habitat area of R. opimus will gradually shrink in China, Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan while increasing in Mongolia and Kazakhstan. CONCLUSIONS: These results help identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of R. opimus and provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to protect against future ecological and human health risks. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.