Investigation of turning points in the effectiveness of Covid-19 social distancing.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 17783, 2022 10 22.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36273235
ABSTRACT
Covid-19 is the first digitally documented pandemic in history, presenting a unique opportunity to learn how to best deal with similar crises in the future. In this study we have carried out a model-based evaluation of the effectiveness of social distancing, using Austria and Slovenia as examples. Whereas the majority of comparable studies have postulated a negative relationship between the stringency of social distancing (reduction in social contacts) and the scale of the epidemic, our model has suggested a varying relationship, with turning points at which the system changes its predominant regime from 'less social distancing-more cumulative deaths and infections' to 'less social distancing-fewer cumulative deaths and infections'. This relationship was found to persist in scenarios with distinct seasonal variation in transmission and limited national intensive care capabilities. In such situations, relaxing social distancing during low transmission seasons (spring and summer) was found to relieve pressure from high transmission seasons (fall and winter) thus reducing the total number of infections and fatalities. Strategies that take into account this relationship could be particularly beneficial in situations where long-term containment is not feasible.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Distanciamento Físico
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article