Prospective 5-Year Analysis of the United States Radiation Oncology Job Market Using the ASTRO Career Center Website.

PURPOSE: We provide 5-year results of prospectively collected radiation oncology (RO) job opportunities and a longitudinal assessment of RO graduate numbers within the United States. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Full-time domestic RO job opportunities were collected and categorized using the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) Career Center from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2021. A chi-square test was used to compare regional job availability by city size and position type. The corresponding number of graduating United States (US) RO residents (2017-2021) was collected. US census and Medicare database resources were used as comparators for population and workforce estimates. Pearson's correlation coefficients were used to examine changes in data over time and a 2-tailed t test was used to assess for statistical significance. RESULTS: Over the 5-year study period, 819 unique job offers were posted, compared with 935 RO graduates (0.88 total jobs-to-graduates ratio). Most jobs were nonacademic (57.6%), located in populated areas >1 million (57.1%; median: 1.57M), with the largest proportion of jobs seen in the South region (32.4%). One-third of academic jobs were located at satellites. Regional differences were seen between academic versus nonacademic job availability (P < .01), with the highest proportion of academic jobs seen in the Northeast (60.3%) and the lowest in the Midwest (34.5%). Differences between regions were also observed for jobs in areas >1 million versus ≤1 million (P < .01), with the most jobs in areas >1 million seen in the West (64.6%) and the least in the South (51.3%). Regional job availability over time did not differ by position type (academic vs nonacademic) or population area size (P = .11 and P = .27, respectively). Annual graduate numbers increased with time (P = .02), with the highest percentage of graduates trained in the South (30.8%). Regional distribution of jobs versus graduates significantly differed (P < .01) with the lowest jobs-to-graduates ratio observed in the Northeast (0.67) and highest ratio in the West (1.07). Regional RO workforce estimates based on the 4336 radiation oncologists who were Medicare providers in 2020 were compared with total jobs and graduates by region with no difference observed between the distributions of the workforce and jobs (P = .39), but comparisons between the workforce and graduates were proportionally different (P < .01). The number of total jobs (vs graduates) per 10 million population in the Northeast, South, Midwest, and West were 30.2 (45.1), 21.0 (22.7), 30.6 (33.4), and 22.6 (21.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This multiyear quantitative assessment of the RO job market and graduates identified fewer job opportunities than graduates overall in most regions, most notably in the Northeast. Regional differences were seen between available job type (academic vs nonacademic) and population size (>1 million vs ≤1 million). The findings are worrisome for trainee oversupply and geographic maldistribution. The number and distribution of RO trainees and residency programs across the US should be evaluated to minimize job market imbalance for future graduates, promote workforce stability, and continue to meet the future societal needs of patients with cancer.