Mortality Risk Stratification in Emergency Surgery for Obstructive Colon Cancer-External Validation of International Scores, American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC), and the Dedicated Score of French Surgical Association (AFC/OCC Score).

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The increased rates of postoperative mortality after emergency surgery for obstructive colon cancer (OCC) require the use of risk-stratification scores. The study purpose is to external validate the surgical risk calculator (SRC) and the AFC/OCC score and to create a score for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Overall, 435 patients with emergency surgery for OCC were included in this retrospective study. We used statistical methods suitable for the aimed purpose. RESULTS: Postoperative mortality was 11.72%. SRC performance strong discrimination (AUC = 0.864) and excellent calibration (11.80% predicted versus 11.72% observed); AFC/OCC score performance adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.787) and underestimated mortality (6.93% predicted versus 11.72% observed). We identified nine predictors of postoperative mortality age > 70 years, CHF, ECOG > 2, sepsis, obesity or cachexia, creatinine (aN) or platelets (aN), and proximal tumors (AUC = 0.947). Based on the score, we obtained four risk groups of mortality rate low risk (0.7%)-0-2 factors, medium risk (12.5%)-3 factors, high risk (40.0%)-4 factors, very high risk (84.4%)-5-6 factors. CONCLUSIONS: The two scores were externally validated. The easy identification of predictors and its performance recommend the mortality score of the Clinic County Emergency Hospital of Galați/OCC for clinical use.