Testing different sources of environmental unpredictability on adolescent functioning: ancestral cue versus statistical learning and the role of temperament.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The dimensional model of environmental adversity highlighted the effects of an unpredictable environment in promoting risky development. Toward gaining greater specificity in understanding, this multimethod, longitudinal study investigated the role of two sources of environmental unpredictability-ancestral cues versus statistical learning, and their interaction with dove temperament conceptualized within the evolutionary model of temperament, in shaping adolescent functioning. METHODS: Participants were 192 families with an adolescent (Mage  = 12.4) followed for two annual waves. We measured unpredictability within the ancestral-cue approach as incidents of disruptive family events, and statistical-learning unpredictability as the random variability in observed moment-to-moment maternal hostility during parent-child interaction. We focused on dove temperament, which characterizes strategies of cautious and inhibited behavior in novel contexts and persistence and intrinsic engagement in benign contexts. RESULTS: Findings indicated unique effects of ancestral-cue versus statistical-learning unpredictability-in interaction with dove temperament-in association with adolescent functioning. Ancestral-cue unpredictability interacted with dove temperament in association with vagal stress reactivity, and the interactive effects of statistical-learning unpredictability were only associated with set-shifting. Furthermore, the family instability-x-dove temperament interaction was linked to adolescent adjustment via vagal reactivity. Adolescents with lower dove temperament showed dampened vagal reactivity within the more unpredictable environments, which was in turn associated with a greater decrease in social withdrawal over time. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlighted the specificity in different sources of environmental unpredictability in shaping adolescent development.