Long term survivors of stereotactic radiosurgery for brain metastases: do distant brain failures reach a plateau and what factors are associated with a brain metastasis velocity of zero?

PURPOSE: Life expectancy continues to increase for patients with brain metastases treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). The present study sought to retrospectively analyze brain metastasis patients who have survived 2 years or more, and assess for what factors may predict for a final brain metastasis velocity (BMV) of zero. METHODS: This was a single-institution retrospective study of 300 patients treated with SRS from 2001 to 2019 for brain metastases who survived greater than 2 years after first SRS. Final BMV is calculated by summing all metastases through the observed time divided by the total time in years. A BMV of zero is defined as at least 2 years of imaging follow-up without distant brain failure (DBF). RESULTS: Median age at first SRS is 61 (IQR: 53, 70). Kaplan-Meier estimated median overall survival is 4.9 years and time to DBF is 1.5 years (95% CI 1.2, 2.0). Twenty-eight (9.3%) patients underwent subsequent WBRT. One hundred and one (33.7%) patients never had any further brain metastases (BMV = 0) at a median follow-up time of 3.3 years. Median BMV is 0.4 (IQR: 0, 1.4). Distant brain failures reach a plateau at 4 years where the cumulative incidence of DBF is 82%. 70% of first time DBFs have occurred by 2 years. Factors significantly associated with a BMV of zero include fewer brain metastases at first SRS (HR 1.1; p = 0.0004) and Caucasian race (HR 1.5; p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Approximately one third of brain metastasis patients who live beyond 2 years after initial SRS have a BMV of zero. DBFs appear to reach a plateau at 4 years. Factors significantly associated with a BMV of zero include Caucasian race and having had a single brain metastasis at first SRS.