Establishment and validation of a risk prediction model for high-grade cervical lesions.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To establish and validate a risk prediction model for cervical high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL). METHODS: This retrospective study included patients who underwent cervical biopsies at the Cervical Disease Centre of Maternal and Child Hospital of Hubei Province between January 2021 and December 2021. RESULTS: A total of 1630 patients were divided into the HSIL + cervical lesion group (n = 186) and the ≤ LSIL cervical lesions group (n = 1444). LSIL, ASC-H, HSIL and SCC, high-risk HPV, HPV16, HPV18/45, multiple HPV strains, acetowhite epithelium, atypical vessels, and mosaicity were independently associated with HSIL + lesions. These factors were used to establish a risk prediction model with a demonstrated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.851 and a C-index of 0.829. Calibration curve analysis showed that the model performed well, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.005. The decision curve showed that the model created by combining the risk factors was more specific and sensitive than each predictive variable. CONCLUSION: The model for predicting HSIL demonstrated promising predictive capability and might help identify patients requiring biopsy and treatment.