Exploring drivers of the aggravated surface O3 over North China Plain in summer of 2015-2019: Aerosols, precursors, and meteorology.

ABSTRACT

Continuous aggravated surface O3 over North China Plain (NCP) has attracted widely public concern. Herein, we evaluated the effects of changes in aerosols, precursor emissions, and meteorology on O3 in summer (June) of 2015-2019 over NCP via 8 scenarios with WRF-Chem model. The simulated mean MDA8 O3 in urban areas of 13 major cities in NCP increased by 17.1%∼34.8%, which matched well with the observations (10.8%∼33.1%). Meanwhile, the model could faithfully reproduce the changes in aerosol loads, precursors, and meteorological conditions. A relatively-even O3 increase (+1.2%∼+3.9% for 24-h O3 and +1.0%∼+3.8% for MDA8 O3) was induced by PM2.5 dropping, which was consistent with the geographic distribution of regional PM2.5 reduction. Meanwhile, the NO2 reduction coupled with a near-constant VOCs led to the elevated VOCs/NOx ratios, and then caused O3 rising in the areas under VOCs-limited regimes. Therein, the pronounced increases occurred in Handan, Xingtai, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, and Langfang (+10.7%∼+13.6% for 24-h O3 and +10.2%∼+12.2% for MDA8 O3); while the increases in other cities were 5.7%∼10.5% for 24-h O3 and 4.9%∼9.2% for MDA8 O3. Besides, the meteorological fluctuations brought about the more noticeable O3 increases in northern parts (+12.5%∼+13.5% for 24-h O3 and +11.2%∼+12.4% for MDA8 O3) than those in southern and central parts (+3.2%∼+9.3% for 24-h O3 and +3.7%∼+8.8% for MDA8 O3). The sum of the impacts of the three drivers reached 16.7%∼21.9%, which were comparable to the changes of the observed O3. Therefore, exploring reasonable emissions-reduction strategies is essential for the ozone pollution mitigation over this region.