A probabilistic toxicokinetic modeling approach to the assessment of the impact of daily variations of lead concentrations in tap water from schools and daycares on blood lead levels in children.

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of exposure to tap water lead concentration ([Pb]TW) occurring in schools or daycares on blood lead level (BLL) of attending children. Given the potentially wide variations in space and time of ([Pb]TW) documented in the literature, a simple probabilistic toxicokinetic (STK) model that allows the simulation of the time-varying evolution of BLL in response to these variations was developed. Thus, basic toxicokinetic equations were assembled to simulate BLL in a typical infant, toddler and pupil. The STK model's steady-state BLL predictions showed good correspondence when validated against Integrated Exposure and Uptake BioKinetic model predictions for comparable [Pb]TW values. Exposures to three distributions of [Pb]TW in specific sets of Canadian schools and daycares documented in the scientific literature were simulated probabilistically with Monte Carlo simulations. For the highest distribution of [Pb]TW simulated (median, 90th percentile = 24, 412 µg/L), average annual BLL (median, 97.5th percentile) varies between 1.5 and 6.4 µg/dL in infant and 1.1 and 3 µg/dL in pupils. Toddler's results were midway between those from the infants and pupils. Under this exposure scenario, the infant may present BLL > 5 µg/dL for a significant number of days over the course of the academic year (median; 97.5th: 17; 227 days). However, peak exposure may remain unnoticed if rare and drowned out by the background BLL. In conclusion, even if they may be sparse, peak exposure episodes to [Pb]TW in schools and daycares may suffice to increased BLL in attending individuals. This finding emphasizes the need for further characterization of [Pb]TW in schools and daycares in order to identify potentially problematic institutions and therefore avoid undesirable exposures for the children attending them.