A clinical nomogram for predicting the residual low back pain after percutaneous endoscopic surgery for lumbar disc herniation.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Current findings suggest that minimally percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy (PELD) is a practical therapeutic approach for lumbar disc herniation (LDH). However, some patients still end up with residual low back pain, even after surgery. Our study aims to construct and validate a nomogram to predict residual low back pain after PELD. METHODS: The medical records of 355 LDH patients admitted to the author's hospital were retrospectively analyzed between January 2019 and December 2021. The patients were randomly divided into two groups with a ratio of 73, namely a modelling group and a validation group. The univariable logistics and multivariable regression methods were used to screen the independent risk factors. A nomogram was then drawn using independent risk factors selected from the univariable and multivariable regression analyses. The concordance index (C-index), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the nomogram's performance. Finally, the accuracy of the nomogram was verified by a validation cohort. RESULTS: 36.6% (130/355) of patients showed low back pain after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy, while 63.4% (225/355) showed no symptoms. Multivariable logistical regression analysis showed that Modic change (p < 0.05, OR = 1.813), fatty infiltration of the paravertebral muscle (p < 0.05, OR = 2.935), and edema of lumbodorsal fascia (p = 0.049, OR = 1.611) were significant risk factors for post-operative residual back pain. Moreover, the C-index of the predictive nomogram was 0.743 (0.681-0.805), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.739, and the DCA results exhibit a net benefit between 0.16 and 0.66. The above internal validation methods demonstrate the nomogram's good predictive capability. CONCLUSION: Each variable in the model had a quantitatively corresponding risk score, which can be used in predicting residual low back pain after PELD.