Optimization and multi-uncertainty analysis of best management practices at the watershed scale: A reliability-level based bayesian network approach.
J Environ Manage
; 331: 117280, 2023 Apr 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36682274
ABSTRACT
Best management practices (BMPs) have been widely adopted to mitigate diffuse source pollutants, and the simulated processes of its pollutant reduction effectiveness suffer from manifold uncertainties, such as watershed model parameters and climate change. We presented a novel Bayesian modeling framework for BMPs planning, integrating process-based watershed modeling and Bayesian optimization algorithm to reveal the impact of multiple uncertainties. The proposed framework was applied to a BMPs planning case study in the Erhai watershed, the seventh-largest freshwater lake in China. Firstly, priority management areas (PMAs) were identified for BMPs siting using a simulation-optimization approach. Bayesian networks were subsequently embedded to reveal the multiple uncertainty sources in the optimal planning and the reliability level (RL) is introduced to represent the probability to meet the water quality target with BMPs implementation. The results suggest that ENS of discharge and nutrients concentration simulation by LSPC are both greater than 0.5, which displays satisfactory performance. The identified PMAs account for 0.8% of the total watershed areas while contribute to more than 15% of nutrient loadings reduction. The analysis of multiple uncertainty sources reveals that precipitation is the most influential source of uncertainties in BMP effectiveness. The construction of hedgerows plays an important role in the nutrient reduction. With the improvement of the reliability levels, the cost increases sharply, indicating that the implementation of BMPs has a marginal utility. The study addressed the urgent need for effective and efficient BMPs planning by identifying PMAs and addressing multi-source uncertainties.
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Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Poluição da Água
/
Poluentes Ambientais
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article