Causal inference in dentistry: Time to move forward.

ABSTRACT

Oral conditions represent a critical public health challenge, and together with descriptive and predictive epidemiology, causal inference has a crucial role in developing and testing preventive oral health interventions. By identifying not just correlations but actual causes of disease, causal inference may quantify the average effect of interventions and guide policies. Although authors are not usually explicit about it, most oral health studies are guided by causal questions. However, methodological deficiencies limit their interpretability and the implementation of their findings. This manuscript is a call to action on the use of causal inference in oral research. Its application starts with asking theoretically sound questions and being explicit about causal relationships, defining the estimates to evaluate, and measuring them properly. Beyond promoting causal analytical approaches, we emphasize the need for more causal thinking to promote thoughtful research questions and the use of appropriate methods to answer them. Causal inference relies on the plausibility of assumptions underlying the data analysis and the quality of the data, and we argue that high-quality observational studies can be used to estimate average causal effects. Although individual efforts to embrace causal inference in dentistry are essential, they will not yield substantial results if not led by a systematic and structural change in the field. We urge scientific societies, funding bodies, dental schools, and journals to promote transparency in research, causal thinking, and causal inference projects to move the field toward more meaningful studies. It is also time for researchers to move forward and connect with the community, co-produce investigations and translate their findings, and engage in interventions that impact public health. We conclude by highlighting the importance of triangulating results from different data sources and methods to support causal inference and inform decision-making on interventions to effectively improve population oral health.