Possibility of mpox viral transmission and control from high-risk to the general population: a modeling study.
BMC Infect Dis
; 23(1): 119, 2023 Feb 24.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36829116
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Mpox is an emerging infectious disease that is now a global hazard. The strategies for preventing and controlling mpox should be further investigated in terms of transmission characteristics, infection risk among different populations, and ideal therapeutic approaches.METHODS:
A multi-group dynamic model was used to quantify the transmissibility of mpox. We further analyzed the transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to non-MSM and evaluated the effects of three intervention measures, including community-based prevention, early detection, and vaccination.RESULTS:
The median value of effective reproduction number (Reff) and probability of contact via a single contact (q) among MSM worldwide is 3.11 (interquartile range [IQR] 2.82-5.57) and 2.15% (IQR 1.95-3.84%). We found that the cumulative incidence rate of non-MSM is much lower than that of MSM (< 1/2048) when the possibility of infection (including the percentage of high-risk behaviors of contact degree [C] and q) was lowered to less than 1 in 100,000. When comparing the three intervention measures, if we want to control the cumulative incidence rate to 5.96 × 10-8 we need to increase the vaccine coverage to 81% or reduce the transmission rate factor (Cq) to 70% or shorten the transmission period to 74%.CONCLUSIONS:
Mpox has high transmissibility in MSM, which required minimize the risk of infection and exposure to high-risk populations. Community prevention and control is the top priority of interventions to contain the spread of mpox.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecções por HIV
/
Mpox
/
Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article