Construction and influencing factors of an early warning system for marine ranching ecological security: Experience from China's coastal areas.

ABSTRACT

Marine ranching has been widely considered as a new mode of marine fishery production. Marine ranching ecological security (MRES) is the basis and premise to ensure the sustainable utilization of marine ranching functions. In this study, an MRES early warning system was constructed based on comprehensive marine ranching ecological security index (CMRESI) and system dynamic model to reveal the main factors affecting the development of marine ranching and explore the changes in MRES under different future development scenarios in China's coastal areas from 2011 to 2035. The results showed that (1) the mean CMRESI of China was only 0.3265 and spatial heterogeneity was significant, showing a general security state; (2) coupling and coordination degree of MRES subsystems was high in Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, and Guangdong, and resources was a major constraint on the coordinated development of MRES in the study area (63.6%); (3) Under the ecological priority development scenario, the CMRESI will be the highest in 2035; however, 27% of MRES (in Jiangsu, Fujian, and Hainan) will continue to issue serious early warnings. This study could provide a reference for construction planning, management maintenance, and decision-making of marine ranching.