Individualized Models for Glucose Prediction in Type 1 Diabetes: Comparing Black-Box Approaches to a Physiological White-Box One.
IEEE Trans Biomed Eng
; 70(11): 3105-3115, 2023 Nov.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37195837
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
Accurate blood glucose (BG) prediction are key in next-generation tools for type 1 diabetes (T1D) management, such as improved decision support systems and advanced closed-loop control. Glucose prediction algorithms commonly rely on black-box models. Large physiological models, successfully adopted for simulation, were little explored for glucose prediction, mostly because their parameters are hard to individualize. In this work, we develop a BG prediction algorithm based on a personalized physiological model inspired by the UVA/Padova T1D Simulator. Then we compare white-box and advanced black-box personalized prediction techniques.METHODS:
A personalized nonlinear physiological model is identified from patient data through a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The individualized model was integrated within a particle filter (PF) to predict future BG concentrations. The black-box methodologies considered are non-parametric models estimated via gaussian regression (NP), three deep learningmethods:
long-short-term-memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolutional networks (TCN), and a recursive autoregressive with exogenous input model (rARX). BG forecasting performances are assessed for several prediction horizons (PH) on 12 individuals with T1D, monitored in free-living conditions under open-loop therapy for 10 weeks.RESULTS:
NP models provide the most effective BG predictions by achieving a root mean square error (RMSE), RMSE = 18.99 mg/dL, RMSE = 25.72 mg/dL and RMSE = 31.60 mg/dL, significantly outperforming LSTM, GRU (for PH = 30 minutes), TCN, rARX, and the proposed physiological model for PH=30, 45 and 60 minutes.CONCLUSIONS:
Black-box strategies remain preferable for glucose prediction even when compared to a white-box model with sound physiological structure and individualized parameters.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article