Estimating the Effectiveness of Health Warnings on Cigarette Packaging in Nigeria: A Modeling Study.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco consumption is associated with nearly 30 000 deaths annually in Nigeria alongside other adverse health and economic effects. Our objective was to estimate the health and economic implications of the current cigarette labeling policies (text-only HWs); new health warnings policies in the country (adding graphic health warnings with up to 60% coverage), and plain packaging policy as recommended by the World Health Organization. AIMS AND METHODS: We used a probabilistic state-transition individual microsimulation model, considering natural history, healthcare costs, and quality-of-life losses associated with main tobacco-attributable diseases; and the potential effects of packaging and labeling policies. We used three scenarios: (1) text-only health warnings (HWs) covering 50% of the pack, (2) introduction of graphic HWs of 50% (and later increasing to 80%) of the pack, and (3) plain packaging with HWs covering 80% of the pack. RESULTS: A total of 748 deaths are averted in the current situation; 7478 and 14 208 deaths can be averted with the new policy and with plain packaging, respectively. The number of cardiac, cerebrovascular, and cancer events that could be averted by adopting text and graphic HWs are 3093, 5093, and 1346, respectively; increasing to 5876, 9676, and 2557, respectively, with plain packaging. Up to 251 794 years were lost because of early deaths and disability, and ₦144.6 billion (USD 469 million) in health costs could be saved with HWs covering 50% to 80% of the pack over 10 years. With plain packaging and graphic HWs covering 80% of the package 478,408 years and ₦274.7 billion (USD 895 million) would be saved. CONCLUSIONS: The new cigarette labeling policy in Nigeria may yield significant health and economic benefits over 10 years. Moving the current policy to plain packaging can significantly improve these benefits. IMPLICATIONS: The new cigarette labeling policy that Nigeria is implementing should aim to achieve 100% compliance with its current regulation and the logical next step: Plain packaging with large warnings. The present study adds evidence of the potential health effects and cost savings of these levels of implementation, which is valuable for local policymakers.