Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model to Predict Postextubation Dysphagia in Elderly Patients After Endotracheal Intubation Under General Anesthesia: A Single-Center Cross-Sectional Study.

ABSTRACT

At present, the incidence and risk factors for dysphagia after extubation in elderly inpatients are still unclear, and we aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model that prospectively identifies high-risk patients to reduce the occurrence rate of dysphagia. The 469 patients recruited were randomly divided into modeling and validation groups in a 73 ratio. In the modeling group, the postextubation dysphagia (PED) risk factors were analyzed, and a risk prediction model was established. In the validation group, the model was validated and evaluated. The model was constructed based on the risk factors determined by a binary logistic regression analysis. The discrimination ability of the model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The calibration curve and Hosmer‒Lemeshow test were performed to evaluate the model's calibration ability. The clinical utility of the risk prediction model was analyzed by decision curve analysis (DCA). The results showed that the incidence of PED was 15.99%, and age, duration of indwelling gastric tube, difficult endotracheal intubation, atomization after extubation, anesthesia risk level and frailty assessment were identified as important risk factors. The model was validated to have favorable discrimination, calibration ability and clinical utility. It has a certain extension value and clinical applicability, providing a feasible reference for preventing the occurrence of PED.