A simple preoperative model to predict overall survival of patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma ≥10 cm.

BACKGROUND: Studies have rarely reported on preoperative predictors of prognosis of patients undergoing liver resection (LR) for HCC ≥10 cm. We developed a simple model to predict overall survival (OS) of these patients. METHODS: We enrolled 305 patients with HCC ≥10 cm undergoing LR. Cirrhosis and imaging-defined AJCC stage were used to develop a preoperative model. Patients were divided into three groups based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator. RESULTS: Group 1 included patients with AJCC stage 1 and no cirrhosis (n = 86), group 2 those with AJCC stage 1 and cirrhosis plus those with AJCC stage 2 or 3 and no cirrhosis (n = 166), and group 3 those with AJCC stage 2 or 3 and cirrhosis (n = 51). The five-year OS of group 1, 2, and 3 was 55%, 32%, and 25%, respectively (p < 0.001). With group 1 as the reference, multivariate analysis of OS showed that group 2 (HR = 2.043; 95% CI = 1.332-3.134; p = 0.001) and group 3 (HR = 2.740; 95% CI = 1.645-4.564; p < 0.001) were independent predictors of OS. CONCLUSION: We developed a simple model to predict OS of patients undergoing LR for HCC ≥10 cm.