Temporal tendency, seasonality and relationship with climatic factors of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever cases (East of Turkey: 2012-2021).

ABSTRACT

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever continues to be an important public health problem by expanding its borders. To evaluate the temporal trend, seasonality, and relationship with the climatic factors of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever. Study data included cases treated in two different tertiary healthcare institutions between 2012 and 2021. The demographic characteristics of the cases and the dates of admission to the hospital were determined, and they were matched with the average of the measurements (temperature, cumulative precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed) of two different meteorology stations in the study area. By calculating the crude incidence rates, the trend in years was investigated. Estimates were created by removing the incidence rates, seasonality, and trend components using the additive decomposition technique. The temporal relationship between incidence rates and climatic factors was evaluated with the help of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test. Toda Yamamoto test was used for causality verification. The mean age of the cases (n = 974) included in the study was 47.6 ± 17.7 years, and the majority (57.3%) were in the group above 45 years of age. 56.6% of the cases were male and there was a male predominance in all age groups. Incidence rates ranged from 5.5 to 23.1/100,000 over the ten-year period and there was a significant upward trend (R2 = 0.691, p = 0.003). Cases of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever that started in March, peaked in July and ended in October, showed a clear seasonality. A cointegration relationship was observed between case incidence rates and air temperature, cumulative precipitation, and relative humidity (p < 0.05 for all). Climatic factors can only indirectly affect the occurrence of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever cases. However, climatic conditions that become progressively more favorable for vector ticks lead to the spread of the disease. The control measures to be taken should be prepared by considering the changing climatic conditions and prioritizing the risk groups. There is a need for information and awareness-raising studies about climate change and the growing dangers associated with it, also outside of endemic regions.