A nomogram for predicting the risk of preeclampsia in women with intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy based on prenatal monitoring time: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) is a special liver disease during pregnancy, characterized by abnormal bile acid metabolism. However, there is no consensus on how to group women with ICP based on the time of diagnosis worldwide. This study aimed to adopt a new grouping model of women with ICP, and the time from diagnosis to delivery was defined as the monitoring period. METHODS: This retrospective real-world data study was conducted across multiple centers and included 3172 women with ICP. The study first evaluated the significant difference in medication and nonmedication during different monitoring times. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model was then used to screen nine risk factors based on the predictors. The model's discrimination, clinical usefulness, and calibration were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve, and calibration analysis. RESULTS: The incidence of preeclampsia risk in ICP patients without drug intervention increased with the extension of the monitoring period. However, the risk of preeclampsia decreased in ICP patients treated with ursodeoxycholic acid. A predictive nomogram and risk score model was developed based on nine risk factors. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram was 0.765 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.724-0.807] and 0.812 (95% CI 0.736-0.889) for the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that a longer ICP monitoring period could lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes in the absence of drug intervention, especially preeclampsia. A predictive nomogram and risk score model was developed to better manage ICP patients, maintain pregnancy to term delivery, and minimize the risk of severe adverse maternal and fetal outcomes.