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Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air.
Jiang, Jie; Zhou, Tianjun; Qian, Yun; Li, Chao; Song, Fengfei; Li, Hongmei; Chen, Xiaolong; Zhang, Wenxia; Chen, Ziming.
Afiliação
  • Jiang J; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Zhou T; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn.
  • Qian Y; University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn.
  • Li C; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA.
  • Song F; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.
  • Li H; Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
  • Chen X; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.
  • Zhang W; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Chen Z; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature ; 623(7987): 544-549, 2023 Nov.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37821703
High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly because of a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying-North Wetting1. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability2,3. Although climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA1,4, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by the uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favoured a dipolar precipitation trend from 1951 to 2020. Moreover, the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium- or high-emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6-1.1 °C compared with the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift to a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift in precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. These findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Chuva / Clima / Ar / Altitude País/Região como assunto: Asia Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Chuva / Clima / Ar / Altitude País/Região como assunto: Asia Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article