Increased population susceptibility to seasonal influenza during the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the United States.
J Med Virol
; 95(10): e29186, 2023 10.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37855656
ABSTRACT
To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has quantitatively estimated the dynamics and cumulative susceptibility to influenza infections after the widespread lifting of COVID-19 public health measures. We constructed an imitated stochastic susceptible-infected-removed model using particle-filtered Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number of influenza based on influenza surveillance data in southern China, northern China, and the United States during the 2022-2023 season. We compared these estimates to those from 2011 to 2019 seasons without strong social distancing interventions to determine cumulative susceptibility during COVID-19 restrictions. Compared to the 2011-2019 seasons without a strong intervention with social measures, the 2022-2023 influenza season length was 45.0%, 47.1%, and 57.1% shorter in southern China, northern China, and the United States, respectively, corresponding to an 140.1%, 74.8%, and 50.9% increase in scale of influenza infections, and a 60.3%, 72.9%, and 45.1% increase in population susceptibility to influenza. Large and high-intensity influenza epidemics occurred in China and the United States in 2022-2023. Population susceptibility increased in 2019-2022, especially in China. We recommend promoting influenza vaccination, taking personal prevention actions on at-risk populations, and monitoring changes in the dynamic levels of influenza and other respiratory infections to prevent potential outbreaks in the coming influenza season.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Influenza Humana
/
COVID-19
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
/
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article