Exploring published and novel pre-treatment CT and PET radiomics to stratify risk of progression among early-stage non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with stereotactic radiation.

PURPOSE: Disease progression after definitive stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) occurs in 20-40% of patients. Here, we explored published and novel pre-treatment CT and PET radiomics features to identify patients at risk of progression. MATERIALS/METHODS: Published CT and PET features were identified and explored along with 15 other CT and PET features in 408 consecutively treated early-stage NSCLC patients having CT and PET < 3 months pre-SBRT (training/set-aside validation subsets: n = 286/122). Features were associated with progression-free survival (PFS) using bootstrapped Cox regression (Bonferroni-corrected univariate predictor: p ≤ 0.002) and only non-strongly correlated predictors were retained (|Rs|<0.70) in forward-stepwise multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Tumor diameter and SUVmax were the two most frequently reported features associated with progression/survival (in 6/20 and 10/20 identified studies). These two features and 12 of the 15 additional features (CT: 6; PET: 6) were candidate PFS predictors. A re-fitted model including diameter and SUVmax presented with the best performance (c-index: 0.78; log-rank p-value < 0.0001). A model built with the two best additional features (CTspiculation1 and SUVentropy) had a c-index of 0.75 (log-rank p-value < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A re-fitted pre-treatment model using the two most frequently published features - tumor diameter and SUVmax - successfully stratified early-stage NSCLC patients by PFS after receiving SBRT.