Climate change-derived environmental and physical factors influencing the socioeconomic development in the Himalayan region.

ABSTRACT

Spatio-temporal fluctuation of climatic variables with the terrain characteristics and their inter-relationship is a priority for predicting flash-flood-induced landslide hazards over the fragile Himalayas. The present study addressed this anxiety by assimilating satellite data products and auxiliary datasets in the Bhagirathi River basin of the Indian Himalayas. Snow Covered Area (SCA) is a critical indicator of the ecosystem that influenced the flash flood along different terrain features such as Altitude, Hill-Gradient, and Aspect. GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) technique is used to analyze the possible landslide zones and flood extent along the river basin, and MODIS Terra (MOD10A2) data products derived annual SCA is 4278 km2 for the year 2021, the analysis of geospatial maps at 25° intervals of Altitude, hill-gradient, and Aspect. The SCA distribution reveals that apart from the Altitude, the Aspect of the hill gradient significantly impacts snow accumulation. Hill-Gradient, ranging from 13.06 to 19.52, occupies 24.7% of the total area, and 45.3 to 51.83 are found without snow. The highest variation of SCA is along the Western direction (9.19%), followed by North-East (8.79%), while the least (3.78%) variance is in the Southwest direction. Additionally, it was found that many bridges, roads, and other properties are under threat in this study area, even with a moderate flash flood. Findings from this study provide the spatiotemporal status of SCA in various geological stress conditions during the last decades and probable landslide zones. This will be a preliminary pathway to policymakers in rehabilitation and early evacuation of human lives due to flash flood occurrence.