[Situational analysis of periodontal disease burden for adults in China from 1990 to 2019 and its incidence trend prediction].

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the burden and changing trends of periodontal disease in adults of the mainland of China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the incidence trends of periodontal disease in the next 25 years, with a goal to provide a basis for reducing the burden of periodontal disease and formulating relevant prevention and treatment measures. Methods: Data on the incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALY) rate of periodontal disease among adults in the mainland of China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2019 (GBD 2019) database. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was used to estimate the temporal trend of periodontal disease, and the age-period-cohort model (APC) was used to predict the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease in Chinese adults from 2020 to 2044. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rate of adult periodontal disease in the mainland of China showed an increasing trend, with EAPCs of 0.3 (95%CI 0.1-0.6), 0.5 (95%CI 0.1-0.8), and 0.5 (95%CI 0.1-0.8), respectively. The incidence and prevalence of periodontitis among the population aged 35-39 years old and 40-44 years old increased the most significantly, with EAPCs of 0.8 and 0.7, respectively, whereas the change in periodontal disease prevalence tended to be stable and the increase trend in prevalence was lower in the elderly group (EAPC=0.4). The incidence (EAPC=2.1), prevalence (EAPC=2.6) and DALY rate (EAPC=2.6) of periodontal disease in females increased more than those in males (EAPC=1.9, 2.4, and 2.4, respectively), of which the prevalence had exceeded that of males in 2019. The APC model predicted that the prevalence of periodontal disease in the period of 2020-2044 in China would still be on an upward trend, and the increase rate would be higher in females than in males. Conclusions: The burden of periodontal disease among adults in China had been increasing over the past 30 years, especially among young and middle-aged adults as well as females, and the incidence of periodontal disease will continue to increase over the next 25 years.