[Evolution Characteristics and Driving Forces of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Sinks in the Pearl River Delta Region, China].

ABSTRACT

With the rapid economic and population growth, the Pearl River Delta(PRD) Region is one of the regions in China under the greatest pressure to be carbon neutral. This study analyzed the historical evolution characteristics of the carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions and sinks from 2006-2020 and identified the key drivers of the CO2 emissions and sinks based on the exponential decomposition method. The results showed that① from 2006 to 2020, the total carbon emissions in the PRD Region increased from 218.22 million tons to 366.30 million tons, showing a fluctuating and rising evolution characteristic, with an overall increase of 67.86%. The carbon emission had not yet reached a peak. ② From 2006 to 2020, the total carbon sinks in the PRD Region decreased from 15.67 million tons to 15.53 million tons, showing a trend of fluctuation and decline, with an overall decrease of 0.94%. The carbon sinks were far lower than the carbon emissions, and there was still a large gap between carbon neutrality. ③ The main carbon emission sectors in the PRD Region were the energy sector(40.38%) and industrial sector(26.33%), and the carbon sinks mainly came from forestland(67.92%) and farmland(18.09%). ④ During the period from the "11th Five-Year Plan" to the "13th Five-Year Plan," the main positive driving factors for carbon emissions were economic growth and population size, whereas the main negative driving factor was energy intensity(energy use per unit GDP). However, since the "13th Five-Year Plan," the CO2 emission reduction potential released by reducing energy intensity has been weakening. In the future, the PRD Region needs to address the negative driving potential of the structural adjustment in energy, industry, transportation, and land use. ⑤ During the period from the "11th Five-Year Plan" to the "13th Five-Year Plan," the main positive driving factor for the carbon sink was the green scale, which was conducted by the increase in urban green space during the "11th Five-Year Plan." The main negative driving factor for the carbon sink was the carbon sink coefficient, which was caused by the natural disaster-induced yield reductions in crops with a high carbon sink coefficient, such as rice. Green space structure adjustment should be emphasized in the future. This study can provide scientific support for developing robust carbon-neutral policies in the PRD Region.