Geo-temporal patterns to design cost-effective interventions for zoonotic diseases -the case of brucellosis in the country of Georgia.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Control of zoonosis can benefit from geo-referenced procedures. Focusing on brucellosis, here the ability of two methods to distinguish disease dissemination patterns and promote cost-effective interventions was compared. Method: Geographical data on bovine, ovine and human brucellosis reported in the country of Georgia between 2014 and 2019 were investigated with (i) the Hot Spot (HS) analysis and (ii) a bio-geographical (BG) alternative. Results: More than one fourth of all sites reported cases affecting two or more species. While ruminant cases displayed different patterns over time, most human cases described similar geo-temporal features, which were associated with the route used by migrant shepherds. Other human cases showed heterogeneous patterns. The BG approach identified small areas with a case density twice as high as the HS method. The BG method also identified, in 2018, a 2.6-2.99 higher case density in zoonotic (human and non-human) sites than in non-zoonotic sites (which only reported cases affecting a single species) -a finding that, if corroborated, could support cost-effective policy-making. Discussion: Three dissemination hypotheses were supported by the data (i) human cases induced by sheep-related contacts; (ii) human cases probably mediated by contaminated milk or meat; and (iii) cattle and sheep that infected one another. This proof-of-concept provided a preliminary validation for a method that may support cost-effective interventions oriented to control zoonoses. To expand these findings, additional studies on zoonosis-related decision-making are recommended.