The psychophysics of home plate umpire calls.

ABSTRACT

We analyze the visual perception task that home plate umpires (N = 121) perform calling balls and strikes (N = 3,001,019) in baseball games, focusing on the topics of perceptual learning and bias in decision-making. In the context of perceptual learning, our results show that monitoring, training, and feedback improve skill over time. In addition, we document two other aspects of umpires' improvement that are revealing with respect to the nature of their perceptual expertise. First, we show that biases in umpires' decision-making persist even as their overall accuracy improves. This suggests that bias and accuracy are orthogonal and that reduction of bias in decision-making requires interventions aimed specifically at this goal. Second, we measure a distinct difference in the rate of skill improvement between older and younger umpires. Younger umpires improve more quickly, suggesting that the decision task umpires engage in becomes routinized over time.