[Cohort approach to the study of elderly mortality in modern Russia.]

ABSTRACT

In recent decades, there has been an increase in the number of elderly people in Russia, and the importance of getting a correct estimate of the number of elderly is more relevant than ever. Earlier, it was shown that the annual official estimates of the population in older ages in Russia are overstated. We examined this problem in a cohort context, comparing the mortality rates of cohorts born in 1900-1920 at the age of over 80, calculated by two methods, and made a comparison with countries with reliable population statistics. To adjust mortality rates, the population estimates in older ages were obtained using the method of extinct cohorts. We have shown why the calculation of mortality rates of the elderly population based on the method of extinct cohorts is better suited for the population of Russia over 80 years old than based on the official population estimates. As a result, it turned out that the underestimation of mortality rates of the elderly increases with age, especially in men.