Estimating Community Disruption from Nighttime Gunshots in 6 U.S. Cities, 2015 to 2021.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Gunshots affect those directly involved in an incident and those in the surrounding community. The community-level impact of nighttime gunshots, which may be particularly disruptive to the sleep of nearby community members, is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to estimate the number of people potentially affected by nighttime gunshots and the relationship between nighttime gunshots and median household income in the USA. DESIGN: We collected publicly available data on the timing and location of gunshots in six U.S. cities (Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Washington, D.C.; New York, NY; Philadelphia, PA; and Portland, OR) from 2015 to 2021. We then analyzed the data by computing rate ratios (RRs) to compare the frequency of gunshots during nighttime hours (600 pm to 559 am) versus daytime hours (600 am to 559 pm). Additionally, we used geospatial mapping to create choropleth maps to visualize the variation in nighttime gunshot density across cities. We estimated, using city-wide population, person-nights potentially impacted by the sound of gunshots within areas of 0.2- (low) and 0.5-mile (high) radius. Finally, for five of six cities where data on median household income were available by census tract, we built nonlinear regression models to estimate the relationship between the number of nighttime gunshots and median household income. KEY RESULTS: We analyzed 72,236 gunshots. Gunshots were more common during the nighttime than daytime (overall RR = 2.5). Analyses demonstrated that the low estimates for the mean annual number of person-nights impacted by nighttime gunshots were 0.4 million in Baltimore and Portland, 1.3 million in Philadelphia, 1.6 million in Boston, 2.9 million in New York City, and 5.9 million in Washington. The number of nighttime gunshots was inversely related to median household income. CONCLUSIONS: Nighttime gunshots are prevalent, particularly in low-income neighborhoods, and may have under-recognized effects on the surrounding community.