How will climate change and forest harvesting influence the habitat quality of two culturally salient species?

ABSTRACT

Boreal landscapes face increasing disturbances which can affect cultural keystone species, i.e. culturally salient species that shape in a major way the cultural identity of a people. Given their importance, the fate of such species should be assessed to be able to act to ensure their perennity. We assessed how climate change and forest harvesting will affect the habitat quality of Rhododendron groenlandicum and Vaccinium angustifolium, two cultural keystone species for many Indigenous peoples in eastern Canada. We used the forest landscape model LANDIS-II in combination with species distribution models to simulate the habitat quality of these two species on the territories of three Indigenous communities according to different climate change and forest harvesting scenarios. Climate-sensitive parameters included wildfire regimes as well as tree growth. Moderate climate change scenarios were associated with an increased proportion of R. groenlandicum and V. angustifolium in the landscape, the latter species also responding positively to severe climate change scenarios. Harvesting had a minimal effect, but slightly decreased the probability of presence of both species where it occurred. According to the modeling results, neither species is at risk under moderate climate change scenarios. However, under severe climate change, R. groenlandicum could decline as the proportion of deciduous trees would increase in the landscape. Climate change mitigation strategies, such as prescribed fires, may be necessary to limit this increase. This would prevent the decrease of R. groenlandicum, as well as contribute to preserve biodiversity and harvestable volumes.