The agricultural carbon reduction effect of digital rural construction under the dual carbon target.

ABSTRACT

The exploration of the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of digital rural construction offers a promising path towards achieving dual carbon goals. This study establishes an evaluation system for digital rural construction and analyzes its impact on agricultural carbon emissions using various creative techniques including panel fixed effects, mediation effects, threshold effects, and spatial Durbin models based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2021.It is found that (1) The impact of digital rural construction on agricultural carbon emissions exhibits a "inverted U-shaped" pattern, with a nonlinear effect on emissions through promoting agricultural green total factor productivity and adjusting agricultural structure.(2) Digital rural construction has both promoting and inhibiting effects on agricultural carbon emissions, both locally and in adjacent areas. It also demonstrates a threshold effect, with rural human capital as the sole threshold. Once the threshold value 8.830 is surpassed, the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect becomes prominent.(3)Digital rural construction has a dual effect on local agricultural carbon emissions in terms of both promoting and then restraining the emissions, which has a spatial spill-over effect in the neighboring areas. This study contributes to our understanding of carbon reduction pathways by highlighting the comprehensive utilization of digital rural construction and expanding research on the dynamic context of its impact on carbon emissions.