Two decades of malaria control in Malawi: Geostatistical Analysis of the changing malaria prevalence from 2000-2022.

ABSTRACT

Background: Malaria remains a public health problem in Malawi and has a serious socio-economic impact on the population. In the past two decades, available malaria control measures have been substantially scaled up, such as insecticide-treated bed nets, artemisinin-based combination therapies, and, more recently, the introduction of the malaria vaccine, the RTS,S/AS01. In this paper, we describe the epidemiology of malaria for the last two decades to understand the past transmission and set the scene for the elimination agenda. Methods: A collation of parasite prevalence surveys conducted between the years 2000 and 2022 was done. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict the yearly malaria risk for children aged 2-10 years (PfPR 2-10) at 1×1 km spatial resolutions. Parameter estimation was done using the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method. District-level prevalence estimates adjusted for population are calculated for the years 2000 to 2022. Results: A total of 2,595 sampled unique locations from 2000 to 2022 were identified through the data collation exercise. This represents 70,565 individuals that were sampled in the period. In general, the PfPR2_10 declined over the 22 years. The mean modelled national PfPR2_10 in 2000 was 43.93 % (95% CI17.9 to 73.8%) and declined to 19.2% (95%CI 7.49 to 37.0%) in 2022. The smoothened estimates of PfPR2_10 indicate that malaria prevalence is very heterogeneous with hotspot areas concentrated on the southern shores of Lake Malawi and the country's central region. Conclusions: The last two decades are associated with a decline in malaria prevalence, highly likely associated with the scale-up of control interventions. The country should move towards targeted malaria control approaches informed by surveillance data.

In Malawi, malaria continues to be a significant health issue, affecting people's well-being and the economy. Over the past twenty years, efforts to control malaria, such as using bed nets, specific medications, and introducing a malaria vaccine, have increased substantially. This paper explores malaria transmission patterns during this time to better understand the past situation and prepare for future efforts to eliminate the disease. We collected and analyzed data from various surveys conducted between 2000 and 2022, focusing on malaria risk for children aged 2­10 years. We used a detailed statistical model to predict yearly malaria risk. The results show a decline in malaria prevalence over the 22 years. The analysis also reveals variations in malaria prevalence, with hotspot areas particularly concentrated in the southern shores of Lake Malawi and the country's central region. This decline in malaria prevalence is likely linked to the increased implementation of control measures. The findings emphasize the importance of targeted approaches informed by ongoing surveillance data for continued progress in malaria control.