Association between blood pressure and new onset of chronic kidney disease in non-diabetic Japanese adults: A population-based longitudinal study from 1998 to 2023.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hypertension is a risk factor for developing chronic kidney disease (CKD). Studies of adult participants in the USA reported that hypertension increased the risk of developing CKD even in the non-diabetic population. However, studies in non-diabetic populations are limited and additional studies in other races are required. This study aimed to examine the relationship between hypertension and the development of CKD in non-diabetic Asian adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this longitudinal study, non-diabetic Japanese adults who took annual checkups from 1998 to 2023 were included. CKD was defined as <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and hypertension was classified into four levels according to the guidelines of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association. The Weibull accelerated failure time model was selected because the proportional hazards assumption was violated. Of the 7363 (men 40.3%) people in the final cohort, 2498 (men 40.1%) developed CKD after a mean follow-up of 7.99 years. Elevated blood pressure (BP) and hypertension stage 2 had a 9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1%-16%) and 11% (95% CI 5%-17%) shorter survival time to CKD onset, respectively, than normal BP. Hypertension stage 1 also had a shorter survival to CKD onset by point estimate, but all 95% CIs crossed 1 in all models. CONCLUSIONS: In a relatively healthy Asian population without diabetes, controlling BP to an appropriate range reduces the risk of developing CKD.