[Multi Scenario Carbon Peak Prediction and Emission Reduction Path Analysis of Xi'an Hi-tech Zone].

ABSTRACT

The fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress proposed to be committed to promoting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, promoting the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society and achieving high-quality development. As an important scientific and technological innovation and industrial cluster in Shaanxi Province, the economic development of the Xi'an Hi-tech Zone largely relies on energy consumption, making the task of carbon reduction particularly challenging. Firstly, taking the Xi'an Hi-tech Zone as the research object, through systematic accounting of carbon emissions within the park, we analyzed the current carbon emission status of enterprises in different energy types and industries. Then, using the Kaya model, multiple independent carbon peak scenarios were set up to predict the total carbon emissions and peak time under different scenarios. Finally, based on the development characteristics of the Xi'an Hi-tech Zone, we scientifically selected corresponding carbon emission reduction paths and provided reasonable emission reduction suggestions. The results showed that the proportion of carbon emissions consumed by electricity was currently the highest, and the share was increasing yearly. Industrial carbon emissions had always been dominant, and the development of the tertiary industry was becoming increasingly prosperous. In the scenario prediction, the carbon emission factor scenario, energy intensity scenario, and economic level scenario could reach the carbon peak by 2030. Among them, the economic development level had the greatest impact on the peak and time of the future carbon peak in the Xi'an Hi-tech Zone, whereas the industrial structure scenario, energy source structure scenario, and population size scenario had no peak before 2030. The future emission reduction path mainly started from decarbonization of the power sector, stable and high-quality economic development, green upgrading of energy and industrial structure, and building a green transportation system. This can reserve more preparation time for achieving carbon neutrality and provide decision-making reference for the low-carbon development of industrial parks in China.