Treatment drop-in in a contemporary cohort used to derive cardiovascular risk prediction equations.
Heart
; 110(17): 1083-1089, 2024 Aug 14.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38960588
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
No routinely recommended cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction equations have adjusted for CVD preventive medications initiated during follow-up (treatment drop-in) in their derivation cohorts. This will lead to underestimation of risk when equations are applied in clinical practice if treatment drop-in is common. We aimed to quantify the treatment drop-in in a large contemporary national cohort to determine whether equations are likely to require adjustment.METHODS:
Eight de-identified individual-level national health administrative datasets in Aotearoa New Zealand were linked to establish a cohort of almost all New Zealanders without CVD and aged 30-74 years in 2006. Individuals dispensing blood-pressure-lowering and/or lipid-lowering medications between 1 July 2006 and 31 December 2006 (baseline dispensing), and in each 6-month period during 12 years' follow-up to 31 December 2018 (follow-up dispensing), were identified. Person-years of treatment drop-in were determined.RESULTS:
A total of 1 399 348 (80%) out of the 1 746 695 individuals in the cohort were not dispensed CVD medications at baseline. Blood-pressure-lowering and/or lipid-lowering treatment drop-in accounted for 14% of follow-up time in the group untreated at baseline and increased significantly with increasing predicted baseline 5-year CVD risk (12%, 31%, 34% and 37% in <5%, 5-9%, 10-14% and ≥15% risk groups, respectively) and with increasing age (8% in 30-44 year-olds to 30% in 60-74 year-olds).CONCLUSIONS:
CVD preventive treatment drop-in accounted for approximately one-third of follow-up time among participants typically eligible for preventive treatment (≥5% 5-year predicted risk). Equations derived from cohorts with long-term follow-up that do not adjust for treatment drop-in effect will underestimate CVD risk in higher risk individuals and lead to undertreatment. Future CVD risk prediction studies need to address this potential flaw.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças Cardiovasculares
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Fatores de Risco de Doenças Cardíacas
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Hipolipemiantes
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Oceania
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article