Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world.
Proc Biol Sci
; 291(2026): 20240980, 2024 Jul.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38981521
ABSTRACT
Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures on biodiversity. For these efforts to effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations for the enterprise of predicting changes in ecological and evolutionary observations through time. We begin with an intuitive explanation of predictability (the extent to which predictions are possible) employing an easy-to-use metric, predictive power PP(t). To illustrate the challenge of forecasting, we then show that among insects, birds, fishes and mammals, (i) 50% of the populations are predictable at most 1 year in advance and (ii) the median 1-year-ahead predictive power corresponds to a prediction R 2 of only 20%. Predictability is not an immutable property of ecological systems. For example, different harvesting strategies can impact the predictability of exploited populations to varying degrees. Moreover, incorporating explanatory variables, accounting for time trends and considering multivariate time series can enhance predictability. To effectively address the challenge of biodiversity loss, researchers and practitioners must be aware of the information within the available data that can be used for prediction and explore efficient ways to leverage this knowledge for environmental stewardship.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais
/
Biodiversidade
/
Evolução Biológica
Limite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article