The economics of a national anterior cruciate ligament injury prevention program for amateur football players: a Markov model analysis.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the long term cost savings, return on investment, and gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) that could be achieved by a national anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury prevention program for amateur football (soccer) players in Australia. STUDY DESIGN: Markov model decision analysis. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Two hypothetical scenarios including all amateur football players in Australia (340 253 players) no intervention, and a national ACL injury prevention program. Transitions between health states, including ACL rupture, meniscal injury, knee osteoarthritis, and total knee replacement were made in one-year cycles over 35 years from a societal perspective. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost savings, return on investment, and QALY gain achieved in the prevention program scenario relative to control scenario, by age group (10-17, 18-34, 35 years or older) and gender. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: incidence of ACL rupture, knee osteoarthritis, total knee replacement, and total knee replacement revision. RESULTS: The total mean cost of an ACL injury was estimated to be $30 665. The national injury prevention program was projected to save $52 539 751 in medical and societal costs caused by ACL ruptures in amateur footballers over 35 years; the estimated return on each dollar invested in the program was $3.51. Over this period, the number of players with ruptured ACLs could be reduced by 4385 (9%), the number of knee osteoarthritis cases by 780 (8.1%), and the number of total knee replacements by 121 (8.1%); 445 QALYs were gained. CONCLUSION: Our findings support investing in a national, evidence-based program for the primary prevention of ACL injuries in amateur football players.