Groundwater health risk assessment and its temporal and spatial evolution based on trapezoidal fuzzy number-Monte Carlo stochastic simulation: A case study in western Jilin province.

ABSTRACT

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Four-step-Method (FSM) is a straightforward and extensively utilized tool for evaluating regional health risks, However, the complex and heterogeneous groundwater environment system causes great uncertainty in the assessment process. Triangular stochastic simulation (TSS) possesses certain advantages in solving uncertainty problems, but its inadequacy with discrete data reveals limitations in this aspect. To solve the above problems, this study proposes to construct trapezoidal fuzzy number-Monte Carlo stochastic simulation (TFN-MCSS) to compensate for the shortcomings of the first two methods. This method adopted trapezoidal fuzzy number (TFN) analysis to comprehensively consider the characteristics of a large dispersion of water quality monitoring data and the uncertainty of the human health risk assessment (HHRA) process. Concurrently, to overcome the subjectivity and uncertainty of artificially determining the interval of TFN in traditional methods, the slope was used to select the most probable interval value (TMPIV) of TFN combined with the α-truncated set technique (α-TST) and MCSS. Based on these, a TFN-MCSS was constructed and applied to groundwater HHRA in western Jilin Province. First, the groundwater chemical characteristic determination and water quality evaluation in western Jilin were performed to identify the main pollution indicators, and the health risk effects of pollutants in groundwater of different aquifers at different time periods on adults and children were evaluated using the TFN-MCSS. The uncertainty and sensitivity were analyzed, and the primary risk control indicators were identified and compared to FSM and TSS. The results reveal that TFN-MCSS was more sensitive to data and could reduce the uncertainty of assessment process. It indicated that over a 10-year period, the health risks associated with unconfined groundwater (UW) and confined water (CW) decreased by greater than 52 %. However, the highest total non-carcinogenic risk index (THI) was 1.3-fold higher than the safety threshold, and this posed a health risk.