Surviving the cold: Assessing long-term outcomes among Korean CKD patients exposed to low perceived temperature during winter.

ABSTRACT

Perceived temperature (PT), which encompasses meteorological factors such as wind speed, cloud cover, and humidity, reflects the actual effect of temperature on the human body. However, limited data exist on the health implications of prolonged exposure to low temperatures during winter in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We investigated the association between winter PT and long-term outcomes among CKD patients. A total of 32,870 CKD patients from three tertiary hospitals in Seoul were enrolled in this retrospective study (2001-2018). PT was calculated using Staiger's equation, integrating temperature data from 29 automated weather stations across Seoul, along with dew point temperature, wind velocity, and cloud cover data. Kriging interpolation was utilized to estimate PT values at the patients' locations. Overall mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) were assessed using a time-varying Cox proportional hazards model. Additionally, the Cox regression model evaluated PT corresponding to temperature thresholds for cold surge watches or warnings. Over a median follow-up of 6.14 ± 3.96 years, 6147 deaths (18.7%) were recorded. We found that as the average or minimum PT and Ta decreased by 1 °C, the risk of overall mortality significantly increased. In multivariable analyses, the hazard ratio (HR) for the average PT was 1.049 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.028-1.071), and that for the minimum PT was 1.038 (CI 1.027-1.052). Furthermore, a cold surge warning at a PT of -25.63 °C indicated an HR of 1.837 (CI 1.764-1.914) and a C-index of 0.792. The increased risk of mortality was more pronounced in patients with low or middle socioeconomic statuses. For MACEs, lower average and minimum PT and Ta were associated with an increased risk, following a similar trend to overall mortality, although not all results reached statistical significance. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted public health policies to mitigate risks among vulnerable CKD patients.