Prediction of potential suitable distribution for sweet cherry (Prunus avium) based on the MaxEnt model.

ABSTRACT

The sweet cherry (Prunus avium) is among deciduous fruit trees with high economic value and its planting area is gradually expanding. However, little was known about its accurately suitable area in China. Herein, the potential distributions were modeled based on the MaxEnt model under the current conditions. Its performance was excellent, with AUCs >0.9 for model training and testing. The key environmental factors were the thermal factors (minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio06) from -14.5 to 4.5°C, the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) from 21.0 to 28.0°C), followed by the water factor (the annual precipitation (bio12) from 500 to 1200 mm), indicating that it is not resistant to cold and heat, nor is it resistant to drought or floods. The suitable area in China mainly is found in seven geographical regions including southwest China (eastern Sichuan, northeast and main urban areas of Chongqing, mid-western Guizhou and mid-northern Yunnan), northwest China (mid-southern Shaanxi, southern Ningxia mid-southern and eastern Gansu), northeast China (Coastal region of Liaoning), central China (most of Henan, mid-northern Hubei and central Hunan), north China (Beijing, Tianjing, mid-southern Shanxi), east China (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, central Zhejiang, central and northern Anhui and eastern Jiangxi) and south China (western Guangxi). Based on statistical analysis, these fourteen provinces or cities, namely, Shaanxi, Beijing, Tianjing, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Liaoning and Hubei were the main regions for current development and utilization while for the twelve provinces with higher moderate suitable areas, namely, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Liaoning, Hubei, Hunan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi and Guangxi, we should supplement the appropriate irrigation and winter insulation facilities etc. Additionally, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, also have been identified to have some potentially suitable areas. These information will help avoid the loss of human labor, material, and financial resources and provide a scientific basis for its current introduction, cultivation, and management.