Time Changes of Survival and Cardiovascular Determinants in a Cohort of Middle-Aged Men Followed Up for 61 Years until Extinction.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To study possible determinants of longevity in a cohort of middle-aged men followed for 61 years until extinction using measurements taken at baseline and at years 31 or 61 of follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In 1960, two rural cohorts including a total of 1712 men aged 40-59 years were enrolled within the Italian section of the Seven Countries Study of Cardiovascular Diseases, and measurements related to mainly cardiovascular risk factors, lifestyle behaviors, and chronic diseases were taken at year 0 and year 31 of follow-up (when only 390 could be examined). Multiple linear regression models were computed to relate personal characteristics with the length of survival in both dead men and survivors. RESULTS: Baseline cardiovascular risk factors, smoking and dietary habits, and chronic diseases (taken at year 0 with men aged 40-59 years) were significant predictors of the length of survival both from year 0 to year 31 and from year 0 to year 61, but only chronic diseases were independent predictors for the period of 31 to 61 years. Significant predictors of survival using measurements taken at year 31 (age range 71 to 90 years) were only smoking and dietary habits and chronic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: During a lifetime of follow-up, the personal characteristics with continuous predictive power of survival were only lifestyle behaviors and major chronic diseases.