Prognostic factors for esophageal respiratory fistula in unresectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated with radiotherapy.

ABSTRACT

Limited studies have focused on the prognostic factors of esophageal respiratory fistula (ERF) associated with radiotherapy in patients with unresectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Between January 1st, 2014 and January 1st, 2021, we included patients who were initially diagnosed with unresectable ESCC and underwent radiotherapy. All patients were followed up for a period of 2 years after completing their radiotherapy treatment. The primary outcomes of the study were defined as death or severe adverse events. The survival curves of ERF were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards model was employed to calculated the prognostic factors. A cohort of 232 patients underwent radiotherapy, of whom 32 patients experienced ERF. The median period from initial diagnosis of ESCC to ERF was 5.75 months, and the median period from ERF to the primary outcome was 4.6 weeks. Neck + upper chest location (odds ratio [OR] 3.305), high T stage (OR 1.765), esophageal stenosis (OR 1.073), high neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR 1.384) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (OR 1.765) were risk factors for the occurrence of ERF. Cox regression analysis suggested that tumor location (hazards ratio [HR] 3.572, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.467-5.1), high T stage (HR 4.050, 95% CI 2.812-5.831), esophageal stenosis (HR 2.643, 95% CI 1.753-3.983), high PLR (HR 2.541, 95% CI 1.868-3.177) were independent prognostic factors for poor survival. Esophageal stenosis, neck + upper chest tumor location, high T stage and PLR predicted the prognosis of ERF in ESCC patients undergoing radiotherapy.