Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting distant metastasis in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a comparative analysis of different lymph node staging systems based on the SEER database.

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive value of different lymph node staging systems and to develop an optimal prognostic nomogram for predicting distant metastasis in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Our study involved 6364 patients selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and 126 patients from China. Independent risk factors for distant metastasis were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and a model-based comparison of different lymph node staging systems was conducted. Furthermore, we developed a nomogram for predicting distant metastasis using the optimal performance lymph node staging system. The lymph node ratio (LNR), log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), age, primary site, grade, tumor size, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th Edition T stage, and radiotherapy recipient status were significant predictors of distant metastasis in PDAC patients. The model with the LODDS was a better fit than the model with the LNR. We developed a nomogram model based on LODDS and six clinical parameters. The area under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-index) of 0.753 indicated that this model satisfied the discrimination criteria. Kaplan-Meier curves indicate a significant difference in OS among patients with different metastasis risks. LODDS seems to have a superior ability to predict distant metastasis in PDAC patients compared with the AJCC 8th Edition N stage, PLN and LNR staging systems. Moreover, we developed a nomogram model for predicting distant metastasis. Clinicians can use the model to detect patients at high risk of distant metastasis and to make further clinical decisions.