Spatiotemporal and Multilayer Trade Network Patterns of the Global Cobalt Cycle.

ABSTRACT

Recent years have witnessed increasing attempts to track trade flows of critical materials across world regions and along the life cycle for renewable energy and the low carbon transition. Previous studies often had limited spatiotemporal coverage, excluded end-use products, and modeled different life cycle stages as single-layer networks. Here, we integrated material flow analysis and complex network analysis into a multilayer framework to characterize the spatiotemporal and multilayer trade network patterns of the global cobalt cycle from 1988 to 2020. We found substantial growth and notable structural changes in global cobalt trade over the past 30 years. China, Germany, and the United States play pivotal roles in different layers and stages of the global cobalt cycle. The interlayer relationships among alloys, batteries, and materials are robust and continually strengthening, indicating a trend toward synergistic trade. However, cobalt ore-exporting countries are highly concentrated and rarely involved in later life cycle stages, resulting in the weakest relationship between the ore layer and other layers. This causes fluctuations and uncertainty in the global cobalt trade. Our model, linking industrial ecology, supply chain analysis, and network analysis, can be extended to other materials that are critical for the future green transition.