Experimentation of AI Models Towards the Prediction of Medium-Risk Emergency Department Cases Disposition Outcome.

ABSTRACT

The overwhelming volume of patients in emergency departments (EDs) is a significant problem that hinders the delivery of high quality healthcare. Despite their great value, triage protocols are challenging to put into practice. This paper examines the utility of prediction models as a tool for clinical decision support, with a focus on medium-severity patients as defined by the ESI algorithm. 689 cases of medium-risk patients were gathered from the AHEPA hospital, evaluated, and their data fed three classifiers XGBoost (XGB), Random Forest (RF) and Logistic Regression (LR), with the prediction goal being the outcome of their visit, i.e. admission or discharge. Essential features for the prediction task were determined using feature importance and distribution analysis. Despite having many missing values or high sparsity datasets, several symptoms and metrics are recommended as crucial for outcome prediction. When fed the patients' vital signs, XGB achieved an accuracy score of 91.30%. Several chief complaints were also proven beneficial. Prediction models can, in general, not only lessen the drawbacks of triage implementation, but also enhance its delivery.