Assessing the correlates of desired family size in Shaanxi, China.

ABSTRACT

PIP: An exploratory factor analysis of the political, cultural, and socioeconomic determinants of Chinese women's fertility desires was conducted. Data were obtained from the 1985 China In-Depth Fertility survey for Shaanxi province among 2370 married women 35 years or younger at the time of the survey. The framework for this analysis was based on Easterlin's theory about demand for children and price and income constraints. Price was measured by response to the one-child certificate, marriage delay due to group pressure, residence in an extended family, and woman's educational level. Traditional cultural influences were measured by residence with husband's parents soon after marriage, arranged marriage, correct identification of the reason for the one-child policy, ideal marriage age, and age difference between spouses. The results confirmed the findings of Whyte and Gu on family size desires of 2 children among Hubei respondents. Shaanxi wives were, however, more likely to report a desire of 0 or 2. Childless women tended to report smaller family size desired than women who already had one child. Urban childless women were more likely to desire a family size of one child than rural childless women: 28.4% versus 5.5%. 28.5% of rural women with at least one child desired a family size of three. Urban women were more likely to have signed a one-child certificate. Urban childless women were more likely to live in an extended family and to have a higher educational level than their counterparts. Tobit maximum likelihood estimation methods were used to examine how price, income, and traditional taste variables affected family size desired. The small sample size of urban childless women yielded weaker relationships. Findings indicate evidence of interactions between residence location, actual number of children, and the 12 variables. One-child certificate acceptance increased the cost of children and lowered desires to have more. Educational level only affected fertility desires among rural women with children. Higher family size desires were associated with a younger ideal marriage age. Smaller family size desires were associated with rural women who knew the reason for the one-child certificate and who lived in extended families. Income measures were insignificant.